Econometric analysis of the international demand for tourist services in Argentina, 2007-2019

Jose Iparraguirre; Karen Florencia Crapanzano; Romina Anabel Bernal

Jose Iparraguirre German International University of Applied Sciences in Cairo
Karen Florencia Crapanzano Escuela Superior de Negocios, Universidad de Morón, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Romina Anabel Bernal Escuela Superior de Negocios, Universidad de Morón, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Palabras clave: turismo internacional; modelos autorregresivos de rezagos distribuidos lineales y no lineales; cambios estructurales en series de tiempo; Argentina

Resumen

This paper presents a study on the determinants of the demand for inbound tourism in the tourist regions of Argentina between 2007 and 2019. Using non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models, we report different effects of the various explanatory variables per region. The exchange rate has not had a significant effect on international inflows. We report significant effects from the lagged levels of the number of nights spent per tourist and -in certain regions- from the economic activity level in the countries of origin and the rates of robberies and thefts per person in the region.